Thursday Lectures: Thoughtful Talks for Curious Minds: The 2026 Midterm Elections: Process, Policy & Consequences   

We will introduce the midterms as a crucial U.S. election institution that provides a check on power. We will look at how these elections can alter the direction and makeup of the federal and state governments. We will discuss what polls, campaigns and other information can tell us about what will happen on Election Day. We will discuss how different voting blocs may affect the election results, both in terms of turnout and vote choice.

Dr. Eric Gonzalez Juenke is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at Michigan State University. He specializes in racial and ethnic politics, U.S. federal, state, and local elections, legislative representation, and immigration politics. His recent book The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality examines how U.S. Presidents talk about immigration. His current research focuses on the election of racial and ethnic minority candidates to state legislative office in the United States.

This presentation will focus on the role of social media – and other sources – in the way people understand campaigns and politics. In particular, the presentation will consider why people may turn to social media for information and the role of social media platforms in political expression. Ultimately, the presentation will consider what we gain and what we lose when we rely on social media for political information.

Yanna Krupnikov is Professor of Communication and Media at the University of Michigan. Her research focuses on political communication and political expression. She is the co-author of books, Independent Politics (2016), The Other Divide (2022) and Partisan Hostility and American Democracy (2024). Her current work focuses on the role of the news in people’s everyday lives.

Are policymakers rewarded in elections when they succeed in moving public policy in their ideological direction? Or do they face a thermostatic backlash, as citizens judge their policy moves as too hot or too cold? My analysis of Congressional election outcomes since 1948 adds information on Congressional policy actions to traditional election models emphasizing the surge and decline of presidential support and referendums based on presidential approval and the economy. I find that the electorate reacts against the ideological direction of policy, voting against parties that pushes policy further to the left or to the right in both midterm and presidential years. Even after accounting for policy and traditional explanations, however, there remains a large midterm penalty for the president’s party.

Matt Grossmann is Director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University. He also serves as a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center and host of the Science of Politics podcast. He is an author of The Not-So-Special Interests, Artists of the Possible, Asymmetric Politics (with David Hopkins), Red State Blues, How Social Science Got Better, and Polarized by Degrees (also with David). He is co-owner of Hooked (a bookstore/cafe). His forthcoming book is Policymaking for Realists.

Dr. Sollenberger examines how the expansion of presidential power is shaping American politics in ways that are increasingly visible in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections. Focusing on key governing norms, he looks at how changes in government institutions, law enforcement, media, and election rules affect what citizens see, believe, and ultimately how they vote. The lecture considers what these developments mean for the role of midterm elections as a check on presidential power in contemporary American democracy.

Dr. Mitchel A. Sollenberger is a professor of political science at the University of Michigan–Dearborn and a former analyst at the Congressional Research Service. His research centers on presidential power, constitutional law, and executive authority. He is the author or coauthor of several books, including The President Shall Nominate, Executive Privilege, and The Unitary Executive Theory, as well as numerous scholarly articles examining the modern presidency and separation of powers.

Dulio will examine the most recent data about what to expect in the 2026 election cycle. He will also examine the major races in Michigan including the U.S. Senate contest and the race for governor.

Professor David Dulio is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for Civic Engagement at Oakland University. He teaches courses on campaigns and elections, Congress, political parties, and interest groups. Dulio has published sixteen books, with two of his most recent being Congress and Religion: The Intersection of Faith and Politics and Campaigns and Elections American Syte: The Changing Landscape of Political Campaigns, and has written extensively on U.S. elections, campaign finance, and political consultants. He also served as an APSA Congressional Fellow in the U.S. House.